No discipline

That's the problem. Shortly after the last post I blew the whole bankroll overnight.

Then I reloaded, got the pot to £148, then managed to blow that too.

As soon as I get near £200 it starts to get psychological, that difficult second hundred.

Anyway, whilst I rethink Betfair, i've got £40 winning on Sky Bet that i'm putting on a series of what should be bankers, 1 at a time.

Bet 1: £40 on Montpelier to beat Caen @ 1/2

Won: £60

Bet 2: Over 2.5 Goals Cambuur v AGOVV @ 4/11

Taking Stock Of The Situation

Had a bit of success over the last 6 or 7 weeks, my original £50 is currently £116 (with some currently in play).

Highest was pre-Carling Cup final at £177, but had a shocker and crapped out. Downloaded my bet history from Betfair so i'm going to do a little audit and find out where my money is made and lost.

Statistics, love them. As do 73% of people I know.

Tweet This

Have set myself up on Twitter as @n00b_Trader, hopefully I can change it before long to average_Trader, or just Paul.

End of Week 1 - Profit!

1 more Lay since last post, straight Lay on Scott Waites to beat Ted Hankey 4-0. Was never going to happen and didn't even come close to needing to trade it off.

£4.75 after commission.

Closing balance after Week 1 - £53.42

Proft/Loss: +£3.42

Still Still Don't Know What I'm Doing

Darts. I can play it (just), I can't predict it.

2 small profits and 1 large loss and i'm back under my starting balance for the first time.

Need a exit strategy, a good one.

Closing Balance: £48.67

Still Don't Know What I'm Doing

Winstanley steamed ten Berge and never came close to passing 1.3. A smarter man would have hada proper cover bet, but i'm not that man.

Thankfully, I layed the Draw in the Arsenal/Leeds match after 60 mins and recouped the lost £6.

I also got rid of that 34p that was in my Casino wallet and twisting my melon.

Football - 3 Lays, 3 Profits
Darts - 2 Lays, 2 Losses

Closing Balance - £56.19

Overall: +£6.19

Laying The Favourites

As I understand it, profit can be made by laying the favourites in sports such as Tennis and Darts because over a 3 set / 5 set match there will be peaks and troughs in the performance of each competitor, and laying the short odds favourite can give a lot of reward for little outlay.

Tonight i'm going to look at Darts again and will be Laying Dean Winstanley at 1.3 against Joey ten Berge. Winstanley is seeded 3rd for the tournament and has had a great year, but ten Berge is no slouch and is capable of giving anyone a run for their money.

I'm still playing small stakes, so i've Layed Winstanley for £20 @ 1.3 (Overall liability of £6)

Kick off 2030, let rock this.

Lay Low Back High

Delivered myself a short sharp reminder that I still don't know what i'm doing.

Ted Hankey vs Andy(?) Boulton. Hankey was about to break Boulton in the first leg of the 3rd set at 2-0 up. I sensed a 3-0 set win, so intended to Back at approx 1.4, then Lay when he took the leg at a lot less than 1.4

Unfortunately, in my haste, I Layed at 1.45 and then cursed the Gods at my faux pas. Thankfully, he lost the leg and I backed at 1.4, leaving me with only an 83p loss.

Thankfully i'm still very small stakes, so it's a cheap lesson to learn. For now...

Closing Balance - £56.49

Match #2 - Sheff Weds vs West Ham Utd

Arrrrrgh, football. Hard to predict at times. Got lucky here.

Layed the draw for £10 @ 3.45 and then watched for 70 minutes as both teams tried their hardest not to score. Missed penalties, open nets, dwindling odds.

Thankfully, Sheff Weds ended the botch-a-rama and I traded out at 7.60 for £5.21 profit regardless of the result.

Stake - £4.79
Return - £10
Profit after commission - £4.95

Closing Balance - £57.32

Overall Profit/Loss: +£7.32

Match #1 - Wycombe vs Huddersfield

Well in truth, that was a bit easy and probably not a great reflection on normal matches. I layed the draw at 3.60 for £10, waited for the first goal and backed the draw for £7.50 @ 4.80, guaranteeing £2.50 profit regardless of the result.

In truth, I need not have bothered as Huddersfield added a 2nd straight after, then a 3rd, then a 4th, then a 5th & 6th. By half time the Draw odds had already reached 40/1 to back.

Still, that's not the point, I wanted to make a trade and I did. A lot of traders suggest that an average 13% profit on a trade is a good deal. My £17.50 became £20, so a profit of approx 14%.

Good start. Small beans, but a good start.

Finishing balance (after 5% commission) - £52.37

Year to date: +£2.37

OD +1333.

1333 days since I started my quest to be the best. 31,997 hours since I grasped the sweaty hand of fate and threw caution to the wind. 3 years, 7 months, 24 days, 5 hours, 40 minutes and approx 44 seconds since.... well.... I lost £20. And then another £20. Then another. Then I won a bit. Then I gave up.

Well now i'm back with a new plan - Laying. More specifically, laying the draw in Football matches.

The theory:

1. Pick a game where the draw is 3 - 3.75 and both teams like to score.
2. Lay at these odds.
3. Wait for a goal.
4. Back draw at higher price.
5. Profit.

I'm starting with £50 I got from Quidco and seeing where it takes me.

Match #1 - Wycombe vs Huddersfield - Draw Lay: 3.65

Wycombe Av Goals per Game - 2.83
Huddersfield A.G.P.G - 2.92

Start small, find feet, run free.